Oh no.

My oh my, I'm feeling so ashamed of myself for not updating my journal regularly. I've been pretty caught up with work and the Chinese New Year so I haven't found the time to do it. But I'm hoping from now I'll be able to keep recording my analysis.

A sum of how I've been doing

The past week has been really good for me, I went short the Euro at 1.4788 before it began its descent and had a few positions in it. Earned me more than 200 pips which is quite remarkable for me because of the average range in EURUSD. I was also short cable and cleaned up handsomely in it. I also had a 2 20-30 pips profit on USDJPY and EURJPY going short when it spiked up to the top of the range.

Will post my analysis for next week by Sunday!

Trade Journal

All my trades went well today! USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURUSD all gave a short signal in the morning. Got me lots of money today. It's late already and I've got to sleep so I'll update shortly!

Trade Analysis

GBPUSD

Prices just broke out of the flag that formed on the daily and it looks like GBPUSD will go down. So far, the 10 EMA has crossed the bottom of the wave on all timeframes except the 4H and weekly charts. To pair it off with fundamentals, Bernanke's stimulus looks set to boost the US economy and so far, the BOE has done nothing to prop up the pound. Looks like a descent from down here.

Here's a snapshot of the flag.

If you had read the post on my luckiness, you'd know that I entered into a short unaware on Friday without a stop. So once the market opens, my stop will be placed at the top of this ascending triangle/flag. No matter how things go your way, its always good to protect your profits.

LT Trend: Down
ST Trend: Down

EURUSD

We saw the euro taking a dip last week and so far, my indicators have shown a downtrend. Prices are forming a consolidation/flag and a breakout would indicate further downwards momentum. And if prices do breakout, I'll be there to catch it. Of course, with so many professional traders in the market, I'd expect a massive retracement so I'll be short with a pretty small TP and look to re-enter the market once prices resume the downtrend.

LT Trend: Still up, but prices failed to make a higher high on the daily which might indicate a top
ST Trend: Down

USDJPY

Prices broke through the support at 107.10 on the daily and this gives us a pretty strong bear signal.


However, prices are consolidating into a triangle formation and a break of the triangle would give me an entry signal. However, I'll enter once the 10EMA breaks out of the wave.
LT Trend: Down
ST Trend: Down

USDCHF

A good possible setup on USDCHF. The pair has been in a massive downtrend and it looks like the hourly chart could give a very good short. Prices have rallied and the MACD is at the zero line on the H4. I'll enter if the 10 EMA breaks out of the wave.

LT Trend: Down
ST Trend: Down

Automated

I stopped using the range system as I find prices too choppy. Will turn it on once I deem the way clear to a good winning ratio. So far I've lost just a little on that system but no problem since it uses a good money management algorithm.

System modification

I have modified my system a little and here are the changes.

Originally, my system included the wave and 2 emas. But those just made my charts cluttered and did not give me an objective point of view. So from now there'll just be the wave and a 10 ema.

This way, when the 10ema crosses the wave, I know straight away where the trend lies and THAT will greatly help my trades.

Reflections

Hello blog! It's been a long time since I wrote here and I just want to say, I really need you.

Since I stopped blogging, keeping records and writing down my analysis, my trading has been BAD. Been on a losing streak that will STOP tomorrow, Monday. I've been really busy and haven't been able to squeeze time out to properly record and analyze my trades, but still, I kept trading and as we all know, that's not good. I will resume posting my records and analysis here from now.

Reminder to self : The goal of trading is to make MONEY.
I read something on forexfactory today that really made me think. Is visiting the forum beneficial to me? The answer that I came up with is NO. It made my mind wander and trading is a serious game. I have to concentrate. So from now, I'll cut down my visits to forums.

And oh ya, lady luck favored me on Friday. I left a sell order unattended in my account on cable and when I logged on on Saturday, I was up 113 pips. Not bad considering that I did not put in any stop loss OR take profit. But of course, I had a reason to put that buy stop. There was a support point that if taken out, would justify a trend reversal on the flag for cable.

Okay, enough of talking, time to analyze!

Trade Journal

Well I started the day with 2 positions and basically, I just traded around them. First off would be my usdjpy shorts which were carried over from Friday. They did exceptionally well and I earned quite a bit of pips from them.

My GBPUSD shorts got stopped out in the morning but I re-entered and am holding on to an overnight position now.

I made 3 bad trades today that made me breakeven for the day. First off would be the EURAUD shorts which got stopped out, actually all my trades got stopped out. Then would be my USDCAD long trade, and my EURJPY long trade.

Trade Analysis

GBPUSD

Previous Month's Low : 1.9754

Previous Week's High : 1.9826
Previous Week's Low : 1.9481

Friday's High : 1.9634
Friday's Low : 1.9481
Friday's Close : 1.9564
Range : 153 pips

Weekly, daily, H4 trend down.

H1 ranging.

Trade on the short side next week. Key resistance at 1.9628. Support at 1.9544.


EURUSD

Previous Month's High : 1.4770
Previous Month's Low : 1.4310

Previous Week's High: 1.4818
Previous Week's Low : 1.4638

Friday's High: 1.4814
Friday's Low : 1.4761
Friday's Close : 1.4777
Range : 63 pips

Weekly, daily trend up.

H4 showing a breakout of trading range 1.4638 - 1.4770.

If breakout trades above 1.4770, trade on the upside. If prices fall back into range, trade on the downside. Key support at 1.4770, key resistance at 1.4970.

USDJPY

Previous Month's High : 114.65
Previous Month's Low : 109.55

Previous Week's High: 110.11
Previous Week's Low : 108.55

Friday's High: 109.70
Friday's Low : 108.62
Friday's Close : 108.97
Range : 108 pips

Weekly, daily trend down.

H4 showing a range. However, prices have broken through the weekly trend line and is currently consolidating into a flag formation. If resistance holds at 109.10, prices should break through the support at 108.70 and go further downwards.

Trade Journal

I got out of my EURUSD longs today for a total of 30 pips. Market will definitely start ranging after such a large movement.

Identified the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit YES

Today's story of the day! I went short cable at the top of the range and netted me a good 102 pips.

Identified the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit YES

A flag was formed on the H1 chart and I played the breakout, and pyramided it down. It showed me a great initial profit but I got stopped out in the end for a very small profit. Turned out my trade management was great, just that I pyramided too fast.

Identified the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit YES (a little)

Automated Trading

Well stupid me. I thought that the range today was too big for the system to be profitable, that I went to shut it down! And guess what? It would have hit my TP and would have posted a gain for the day. Damn.

Trade Journal

My EURUSD trades got stopped out. But I've changed my view of the euro at the same time anyway.

Technically, EURUSD broke out of its resistance at 1.4760 and my MA's have crossed. Not only that, the consolidation we had the past few days are beginning to play out as a bull flag. I'm in on my longs and will continue blogging about it. =)

Automated Trading

Stopped out for 80 pips

Automated Trading

Got stopped out for 80 pips.

Trade Analysis

AUDUSD

Can the AUDUSD go up? Sure it can. Will it be a good probable bet? Nah, wait and see. As you look at the chart below, you'd probably notice that the MACD is now above the zero line, and prices are above my wave and my MA's has crossed. I might get in if it retraces to 50.

EURUSD

EURUSD broke below my wave and my MA's have crossed. Everything's looking good for my trade. But of course, I'll be on the lookout for warning signs.

GBPJPY

Look at the MACD going downwards. I believe prices will probably break below the low. Will look for further confirmation.

Got out of my GBPUSD position with a profit of 95 pips. Not that bad a profit.

Identified the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit YES

My EURUSD position is still intact, initial position earning a profit, and I just added on to my position.

USDCAD trade got stopped out at 58 pips.

Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Intraday Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit NO

What Positions Am I In Now?

Currently I'm short GBPUSD, USDCAD and EURUSD.

GBPUSD
Very obvious downtrend, went short on the failure of yesterday's rally

USDCAD
Ranging, shorting it from the high of the range to the low of the range

EURUSD
Unable to break previous high on the daily. Placed a small position to wait for the move. A lot of Germany's news will come out today and my trade decision will be affected by it. First off, my entire rationale behind shorting the euro was that, I'm pretty sure the Eurozone will be hit by the turmoils in the financial markets. Britain has been hit, so the Eurozone will probably be next. The news release today includes Germany's trade balance and more importantly, retail sales. The high euro will probably lead to a bad report for the trade balance and I need to see how consumers are doing. ECB's interest rate statement tomorrow would very much be affected by today's reports.

Trade Analysis

GBPUSD's rally failed today as prices were unable to continue upwards. MACD at zero-line currently and might be rejected.


Currencies that I'm stalking: EURCHF, EURUSD, AUDUSD

Sorry, unable to complete my analysis write-up because my girlfriend is bugging me to sleep!

Trading Journal

The pound rallied today to 1.9826 but failed to stay there. It turned down sharply and I took the chance to continue shorting the market.

Identified the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit Hopefully

And for the AUDUSD trade, trade closed off at a loss of 70 pips

Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Intraday Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit NO

The euro trade is still bouncing around. The action will probably happen tomorrow and thursday as the market awaits the ECB's rate decision.

Automated Trading

Today was great for the system, up 120 pips.

Trade Analysis

Trade Analysis for 8 January 2008

EURUSD

The Euro has been ranging around 1.47 with both sellers and buyers being evenly matched. However, the Euro failed to make a higher high prior to the previous 1.4972. Not only that, it seems like my system is going to trigger my short entry soon. Fundamentally, I expect the Europe to be hit by sub-prime issues as well. With a globalized economy, most major players will definitely be affected. Britain is one good example.


AUDUSD

The aussie is on a downtrend on both the daily and H4 charts which is great for my short position. However, one important point to note is the MACD on the Daily. Currently it is on the zero line, and should it bounce off, I'll be out of my shorts. But should it cross below, I'll start pyramiding and ride this baby down.

EURJPY

Currently forming a descending triangle, will play the breakout with a short limit order.

Automated Trading

I'm currently running an EA on my account. This EA is the Nicotina's break out strategy that is being discussed on forex factory. You take the range from 18 - 1 GMT and trade the breakout. My parameters for this EA is slightly different from that in the forum and back testing results have been great. Here are some pictures of the backtest.

Initial deposit	500.00
Total net profit	1374.78
Profit factor	1.44
Absolute drawdown	7.20

Maximal Drawdown and Relative Drawdown is 27%


This is on 3% risk. With higher risk, the rewards are even more impressing.

The system closed out at a loss of 80 pips today.

Trade Journal

I am currently holding on to 2 short positions in eurusd and audusd.

For the EURUSD trade, prices have just bounced off the bottom of my wave and retraced slightly, leaving me holding on to a loss. The retracement stalled at 1.4738, 2 pips shy of my stop at 1.4740.

Traded with the Daily Trend NO ( Trading a reversal )
Traded with the Intraday Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit ( still holding)

And for the AUDUSD trade, prices are below the wave on the H4 chart, and is crossing the bottom of the wave on the daily. Currently holding on to a 27 pip profit. My profit target would be at the 200 EMA.

Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Intraday Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit NOT YET

Trade Journal

5 January 2008

I got stopped out of my trades today. The first one was USDCAD where I was stopped out for 60 pips and NZDUSD which got stopped out for 39 pips. Both trades were triggered by my 5/8 cross so I'm quite proud to say, it was a good loss. I stuck to my rules and lost money. Way better than if I hadn't stuck to my rules. My short USDCAD was initiated because it broke through my support point of 0.9860. My NZDUSD trade was for a bounce off the trend line on the H4 chart which, if successfully hit my target would hopefully reach the top of the wedge on the daily.

Out for a loss of 99 pips today. Still profitable for the month in pip terms.

Scorecard for USDCAD

Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Intraday Trend NO
Followed the plan YES
Profit NO

Scorecard for NZDUSD

Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Intraday Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit NO

Total Loss: 99 pips

Trade Analysis

Trade Analysis for 4Ath January 2008

USDCAD

The monthly and weekly chart has been showing a down trend for quite some time now and though the daily has been on somewhat of an uptrend, I believe that this will not persist. What I'm waiting for now is a 5/8 cross on the 4H to enter my short positions.


Looks like the cross is gonna come soon!

GBPJPY

The GBPJPY dropped a huge lot of pips yesterday and today, it seems like a doji would form on the daily chart. Will look to go long tomorrow if there's a H4 cross!


EURUSD

Just one focus for tomorrow. The 1.4750 level. If it gets breached convincingly, I'll go long. If it rebounds and there's a H4 5/8 cross, then i'll do the opposite.

GBPUSD

Divergence on the H1. Will look out for any 5/8 crosses on the H4.


Hope tomorrow will be a great day!

Trade Journal

I was holding an overnight position on the euro and it was closed out for a profit of 31 pips. I had no profit target for it and closed out because of the strong resistance at 1.4750. It's better to wait for this level to be broken. I also entered a second position on the euro in the early morning but it got stopped out for 22 pips because of the tight stop.

Scorecard for EURUSD

Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Intraday Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit YES

It was a good day for the pound today for me as well. I mentioned in my trade analysis that I would stay out unless there's a good chance, well, there was. I noticed a triangle formation on the chart and played a break out for a profit of 51 pips.

Scorecard for GBPUSD

Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Intraday Trend YES
Followed the Plan YES
Profit YES

Total pips banked : 60 pips

Trade Analysis

Trade Analysis for 3 January 2008

GBPUSD

The pound behaved as expected and dropped for the day. However, there was a lack of momentum for the day and there is a bearish divergence on the 1H chart. Also, prices were unable to make a new low. The best thing to do is to stay out till things looks better.

EURJPY

Overall trend for the EURJPY would be bearish as there is a zero line cross on the MACD and a 5/8 MA cross on the daily chart. The EURJPY dropped 470 pips today and I would not expect prices to move much tomorrow. It will probably range. So, I'll probably stay out.

EURUSD


The daily chart has the MACD pointing upwards, a MACD zero line reject and 5/8 cross on the 4H and a good MACD signal on the 1H. So overall trend would be upwards and we should see it move higher tomorrow.

Trade Journal

Today was great for the pound, great meaning it went down as expected from my previous analysis. I went short several times and got me 109 pips.

Scorecard for GBPUSD

Traded with the Daily Trend YES
Traded with the Intraday Trend YES
Followed the plan YES
Profit YES

The yen pairs came tumbling down and it was grossly oversold. I went on a counter trend trade and bought EURJPY. I got stopped out at 40 pips. However, as this trade was against my plan and it was highly speculative, I played it small. Very small. Got stopped out at 40 pips

Scorecard for EURJPY

Traded with the Daily Trend NO
Traded with the Intraday Trend NO
Followed the Plan NO
Profit NO

All in all, it was a good day.

I have a long position on the euro currently but this will be an overnight trade.

Trade Analysis

Trade Analysis for 2nd January 2008

GBPUSD

The candle on the daily pretty much said it all. Prices were rejected at the high of the day at 2.0099 and closed down at 1.9840. We can expect to see a slight rebound at around Asia time and further downwards movement for the rest of the day. The EMA cross on the 4h triggered a short entry and I will be looking for a good entry point on the 1H.
Direction: Down

EURJPY

The market closed down on the 31st as well with an entry triggered on the 4H. Unfortunately, I wasn't around to take that signal. The pair looks extended and might be oversold. However, I wouldn't trade against the current trend unless the pair signals a long entry for me on the 4H. Will look for possible shorts with a smaller take profit.

Direction: Down

Candle on the 1H looks like the market is indecisive now and might turn upwards. However, the trend for me is still downwards.