Sunday, January 20, 2008

Trade Analysis

GBPUSD

Prices just broke out of the flag that formed on the daily and it looks like GBPUSD will go down. So far, the 10 EMA has crossed the bottom of the wave on all timeframes except the 4H and weekly charts. To pair it off with fundamentals, Bernanke's stimulus looks set to boost the US economy and so far, the BOE has done nothing to prop up the pound. Looks like a descent from down here.

Here's a snapshot of the flag.

If you had read the post on my luckiness, you'd know that I entered into a short unaware on Friday without a stop. So once the market opens, my stop will be placed at the top of this ascending triangle/flag. No matter how things go your way, its always good to protect your profits.

LT Trend: Down
ST Trend: Down

EURUSD

We saw the euro taking a dip last week and so far, my indicators have shown a downtrend. Prices are forming a consolidation/flag and a breakout would indicate further downwards momentum. And if prices do breakout, I'll be there to catch it. Of course, with so many professional traders in the market, I'd expect a massive retracement so I'll be short with a pretty small TP and look to re-enter the market once prices resume the downtrend.

LT Trend: Still up, but prices failed to make a higher high on the daily which might indicate a top
ST Trend: Down

USDJPY

Prices broke through the support at 107.10 on the daily and this gives us a pretty strong bear signal.


However, prices are consolidating into a triangle formation and a break of the triangle would give me an entry signal. However, I'll enter once the 10EMA breaks out of the wave.
LT Trend: Down
ST Trend: Down

USDCHF

A good possible setup on USDCHF. The pair has been in a massive downtrend and it looks like the hourly chart could give a very good short. Prices have rallied and the MACD is at the zero line on the H4. I'll enter if the 10 EMA breaks out of the wave.

LT Trend: Down
ST Trend: Down

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